Another Year, Another Disruption

It’s March 2026, and just when I thought I could settle down and focus on my business after the usually gruelling annual routines of renewing permits and wrapping up the accounting records of the previous year, another disruption to my well-laid plans looms in the horizon. 

January of every year is predominantly about renewing permits with and paying steep taxes to governments of Philippine cities where my family businesses are registered.  February is when I submit withholding tax reports to the Philippines’ Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), which is no better in red-tape bureaucracy than the city governments. 

March is when I would try to focus back to the basics of managing my family business, as in planning new projects. 

But as soon as March of 2026 had begun, the Middle East erupted into war and local media announced that fuel prices will be going up by a lot—a way, way lot. 

That means higher prices in the offing which means higher costs and expenses. I once again find myself scrambling to reshape strategy for my business. 

Disruption is the new normal. 

In March 2019, also after I was done with the same annual routines from the previous months of January & February, my household together with many others had no water for several days.  The water company stopped supply which it said was due to falling reservoir levels (the real reason was outright incompetence). The disruption was enough to cost my and many businesses some significant amounts of expenses and some lost sales. 

Before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, I and a few million businesspeople, were optimistic for the year 2020.  It was a new decade and there were new technologies to tap.  Opportunities were knocking.  But when March 2020 came, there were lockdowns, shutdowns, and everybody’s thoughts for a prospectively profitable year disintegrated. 

COVID was virtually a two-year disruption and when it waned in 2022, I and many others though we could finally look forward to a much better 2023. 

But then Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.  That ensuing war disrupted ocean cargo and air travel.  Prices went up.  Plans were thrown out the door. 

By 2025, I and again many other businesspeople were already getting used to disruptions.  The Americans announced see-sawing tariffs which made everyone unsure of what and how much goods from other countries to sell or buy.  Prices went up again including wages which made it harder to hire and retain workers. 

And in March 2026, there was war in the Middle East and fuel prices, et al, were going way up.  Another disruption I or other businesspeople did not really expect. 

I thought I was already desensitised to disruption and had been overconfident that I could anticipate any new one.  But here I am surprised by the turn of events. 

During COVID, leaders expounded on a new normal to look forward to. They perhaps thought it would be a world of new technologies boosted by automation and artificial intelligence. 

Instead, here I am together with countless businesspeople, roiling from one disruption after another, year after year, still getting surprised.  (Is it me or do disruptions seem to happen frequently in March?)

What’s the lesson I have been learning? 

Change is the only constant in business, and it doesn’t necessarily originate from me or others.  It happens whether we like it or not and in consequences I am not necessarily privy to beforehand. 

Find Ellery

My Health Routine is My Responsibility

It’s 5am, another Monday morning.  I could use another hour of sleep, but I must get up if I were to make this day and the upcoming week productive.

So-called experts (i.e., rich people who have more money & time to spend than I do) say people should get up early in the morning so that they would have more time for themselves. 

Other experts as in sleep scientists disagree.  They say humans should sleep a continuous eight (8) hours a night to ensure health of mind & body.  Humans need sleep to flush waste from their brains & bodies, in which if they don’t, would potentially lead to illnesses and mental-health problems.

I decide to opt for the former and rise from bed.  My to-do task list shows the need to be busy that Monday and in the ensuing days.  I cannot afford to not meet deadlines or not finish tasks. 

Besides, I believe I got my decent night’s sleep, even though I was in bed for only six (6) hours.  My argument to the sleep scientists is I dreamed.  When people dream, they reach their rapid-eye-movement (REM) cycle, which is the core of healthy sleep.  I don’t remember what I dreamt; the point is I did, so I rationalise that I had a good night’s sleep. 

Health experts insist that people should eat right, get enough sleep, and exercise to be physically fit.  The trouble is health experts themselves continuously debate & revise what diets, sleep schedules, and physical exercise regimens people should be doing.  Some would say I should be a vegetarian, while others would say I should focus on protein-rich food.  Should I sleep eight (8) hours or be satisfied with reaching REM regardless of the number of hours I’m in slumber?  And should I invest in strenuous exercise or be happy with a few minutes of strolling every day? 

My daily schedule includes morning exercises consisting of lifting weights three (3) days a week, and short walks within my residence.  I eat three meals a day and though I tend to overeat sometimes, I avoid sweet desserts and sugar-rich beverages.  Together with my six (6) hour sleep cycle, that in a nutshell comprises my daily self-health maintenance routine. 

Is it enough?  Should I do more?  Should I change any of it? 

My criterion for the effectiveness of my daily routine is how productive I end up.  If I get to consistently finish tasks and meet challenging deadlines, then I would tend to believe I must be doing something right.  If I’m not meeting goals, then I may need to make changes. 

My life is my responsibility.  Reading what other experts say gives me knowledge and maybe some good ideas.  But I dictate what I will finally do.  No one tells me what to do except me. 

Find Ellery

No Need to Learn a New Language

Relatives and friends tell me I should learn to speak Chinese. 

I am an ethnic Chinese who lives in the Philippines where I am fluent in the national language, Tagalog. I also am adept in English, which is my first & primary language.  But I don’t speak Chinese; I never learned to. 

I agree fluency in Chinese would have been a plus, but I’ve not done too bad with Tagalog and English. 

There may have been lost opportunities for not learning to communicate in Chinese.  But I believe my mastery in English had given me an edge in crunching contracts with clients and in debating technical & legal jargon with service providers & suppliers. 

It would have been nice to be fluent in Chinese, but I don’t see the pressing necessity to learn. 

I’m satisfied with the languages I know.   

Find Ellery

Challenging the 80/20 Rule

Smartphone manufacturers say that it’s best to charge cell phones up to a maximum of 80%.  Not charging beyond 80% would ensure a longer battery life of the cell phone, the manufacturers say. 

Liquid petroleum gas suppliers fill cooking gas cylinders up to a maximum of 80% of design capacity.  They say the remaining 20% capacity allows for any untoward pressure build-ups which would risk the integrity of the cooking gas cylinder.

Internet service providers (ISPs) are mandated to provide at least 80% of their advertised speed at 80% service reliability.

80% also “usually falls into the ‘Good’ or ‘Above Average’ category” for students in some schools.

There’s also an 80/20 Rule which is a:

“productivity concept suggesting that 80% of results often stem from 20% of effort. Aiming for 80% completion instead of 100% perfection allows for faster, more efficient work, reduced stress, and higher productivity. This mindset encourages letting go of perfectionism, enabling faster decision-making, better work-life balance, and improved mental health.”

Why the fixation with 80%? 

The 80% standard has its origins in Pareto’s Law which states that 80% of consequences (output) come from 20% of causes (input). 

Pareto’s Law guides us in finding those few root causes that bring about most results. Statistics has proven that a few things can be behind much of what occurs. 

For example:

But as the 80/20 principle helps us identify causes, it wasn’t intended to be a standard for performance.

Saying that I shouldn’t charge my devices beyond 80% of battery capacity or that my Internet Service Provider (ISP) doesn’t need to be more than 80% reliable 80% of the time gives me the impression I won’t be assured of 100% of my money’s worth in my purchases or subscriptions. 

And why should I be satisfied with an 80% fill-rate in the cooking gas cylinders I buy?  I understand the intent to mitigate risk but why not just peg the capacity of the cylinder at whatever kilos or cubic metres of gas that would be considered safe?  The 80% should be the 100%.  Let the debate over what’s the safest filled gas cylinder be between the so-called experts; in the meantime, telling customers that they won’t get 100% of the cooking gas they deserve because of risk is just plain silly. 

And telling people to work on 20% of tasks to generate 80% of their output and say that it is “good enough” is just wrong.  Perfectionism shouldn’t be seen as a sin but as a virtue. People should strive for 100%.  Of course, how the ‘100%’ is set should be clarified. 

Performance is about achieving goals.  We either meet them or we don’t.  When we say we’re good enough to meet 8 out of 10 goals, it’s not only imperfect but also incomplete; we did not finish what we started out to do. 

Self-proclaimed experts may argue that the 80/20 Rule applies more to the quality of work.  That if individuals met 80% of their tasks’ quality or performance standards, then they did ‘good.’ 

But did they, really? 

I wouldn’t want a vendor to sell me products that are 80% passing in specifications.  And I wouldn’t want a contractor turning over a project that met 80% of the agreed scope.  I definitely would complain if a restaurant served me 80% of the food I ordered from the menu. 

There shouldn’t be an 80/20 Rule in performance.  There should be a 100% Rule.  Do your job to meet 100% of what was agreed and expected.  Nothing less without any need beyond one’s call of duty. 

Use the 80/20 concept from economist Vilfredo Pareto as a problem-solving guide to seeking those few causes behind most consequences.  But don’t generalise it to how one does things. But if you still insist on the 80/20 Rule, then tell me what ‘80%’ I should do and I’ll gladly classify the tasks falling under the ‘20%’ as ‘Not Worth Doing.’ 

We don’t have time for silly rules which undermine what we set out to achieve. 

Find Ellery

What Did They Say?

I was a staff industrial engineer in a multinational consumer goods corporation and I was in a meeting with two (2) senior accountants.  We were discussing why the budget for operating expenses was going up for the department I was assigned to. 

Whenever I replied to questions about expenses, both accountants would huddle and talk among themselves, and I wouldn’t understand a word they were saying.  They used a variety of accounting terms as they discussed “effect on liabilities, debits & credits to other accounts, & profitability spreadsheet calculations.” 

I just sat there watching them and thinking “what were they saying and why do accountants talk like that?” 

Years later, I’d get what accountants would be talking about as I moved to smaller businesses and took more responsibilities.  (I speculate that the accountants in the multinational corporation were looking for ways to window-dress their products’ costs, i.e., hide them and make the products look more profitable). 

Self-proclaimed social media gurus sometimes tend to use barely understandable words when they communicate or sell themselves as experts.  A blogger, for example, brags about supply chains that:

“..spot bottlenecks forming weeks before they materialize, rebalance thousands of inventory nodes simultaneously, and turn strategic planning from a months-long cycle into real-time optimization.”

Say what? 

It’s hard enough that new employees need to learn the languages of their peers in the departments they would work in.  People already have enough difficulties understanding one another given all the languages & dialects around the world. 

When it comes to communication, we should be guided by one acronym: KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid). 

Find Ellery

The Un-Ease of Doing Business

https://files01.pna.gov.ph/category-list/2023/01/09/iloilo-biz-permits-renewal.jpg

I hate January.

Every January of every calendar year, enterprises must renew their business permits with the cities and towns they have their offices located at.  On top of the hefty fees & taxes, the process of renewal is tedious.  Every enterprise must submit numerous requirements such as but not limited to securing clearances for fire protection, sanitation, employees’ health certifications, & environmental compliance.  Every clearance has its own set of requirements from documentation to inspection, and this adds to the complexity & time-consuming work of enterprise administrators.

Government politicians who are behind the complicated process of annual business permit renewals say the enterprises’ inconveniences and expenses are outweighed by the assurance of regulatory compliance which ensures the protection of the politicians’ constituents.

The politicians also cite the setting up of one-stop shops in big cities, in which enterprises can fulfil all their renewal permits’ requirements in one place.  Instead of going from one agency to another at different locations, the agencies set up desks with staff at one place, like in a big room at city hall or at a shopping mall closer to most businesses.   

Legislators in the Philippine Congress also boast they had introduced laws to make it easy to do business.  There’s even a tax law known as the Ease of Doing Business Act. 

It doesn’t, however, stop the enterprises (and myself) from complaining. 

Most enterprises don’t renew their business permits in one day whether there’s a one-stop-shop or not.  There’s always going to be a snag. 

Examples:

  • Business permit officer demands enterprise to justify its application for renewal when the former notices a decline in income (many city permit officers are told not to believe enterprises when they report lower incomes).
  • Environmental city officials ask enterprises for additional requirements even though what they ask for aren’t on the published list of requirements.
  • City treasurers only accept cashier’s or bank manager’s checks for payment which entails at least an extra day for the enterprise staff to apply & receive such from their financial institutions. 
  • City officers release last-minute changes to requirements & regulations which catch enterprise staff off-guard and forces rework on their compiling of documents for submission.   

Most cities and towns also don’t release renewed permits right away.  Enterprise staff always need to go back to city halls another day in another month to retrieve their precious permits. 

The annual renewal of business permits doesn’t make it easy to do business in the Philippines.  It also doesn’t help that filing taxes and submitting reports to different national agencies other than cities and town aren’t any easier too. 

It’s not easy to do business in the Philippines, no matter what politicians may say.  The complexity and the expense just add to the uneasiness. 

Electing new politicians isn’t the answer as by experience, as just about all inaugurated politicians in Philippine history have never really made the effort to revamp the much-disliked renewal permit process. 

The answer lies in getting qualified people to re-design the process to make it better. 

But in the Philippines, making things better in government is often nothing more than wishful thinking. 

I hate January. 

Find Ellery

The Pensées By Blaise Pascal

Pensées (pronounced pahn-sáy) was nothing more than Pascal’s collection of his notes and musings, for what academics believed was supposed to be for his unwritten book about Christianity.  Yet, when the Pensées was published into a book in 1670, readers hailed it as a historical masterpiece.

Students of science and religion have cited the Pensées in their dissertations. Religious academics read Pascal for his eloquent discussions on Christianity, notably on his argument for wagering in favour of the existence of a Divine God. 

There’s something to be said for putting one’s thoughts down, because even if we don’t finish what we started, someone someday may still admire what we wrote. 

Find Ellery

Lost Opportunities are Unsolved Problems

A company was stuck in a vicious cycle.  The company delivered orders late.  Customers did not pay right away for deliveries received, citing the tardy arrivals of their orders.  The ensuing tight cashflow caused delays in purchasing and importing critical raw materials.  Manufacturing could not make products on schedule.  Logistics, therefore, could not deliver pending orders on time, which brought back the company to the problem of delivering orders late.   

Because of the draining cashflow and growing debts to creditor banks, the company decided to stop production, downsize the organisation, and switch to trading, which was to import and resell finished products. 

The company’s business improved somewhat in the years that followed the owner’s decision to scale down her company’s operations.  Life was simpler with trading, but the company was far from reaching the revenues it once had when it was into importing raw materials and converting them to products it sold to a bigger market. 

The revenues the company could have reaped if the owner decided not to reduce operations are what we could call lost opportunities.  A lost opportunity is a favourable circumstance which an individual or enterprise had missed or did not take advantage of. 

The company’s owner felt it wasn’t worth it to manufacture products and sell them to a broader market.  She couldn’t handle the challenges of the operations, in which her company was trapped in a vicious cycle of poor productivity.   

The owner faced serious problems, and she decided to avoid them, instead of solving them. 

Many enterprise executives had done the same thing the owner did.  When faced with crises, executives resorted to reductions in head counts, closing facilities, and eliminating product lines.   They opted to skirt the problems rather than solve them. 

There’s no such thing as a bad decision especially if it results in the survival of one’s business.  There are lost opportunities, however, when one decides to avoid solving challenging problems. 

Find Ellery

The Low-Key Professional

Famous people are usually politicians, business titans, military generals, artists, star athletes, and inventors.  Hardly does one find a famous administrator, logistician, or accountant. 

Why is that?

Recognition gravitates to one who leads an earth-shaking change or just happens to introduce something that resonates with just about everyone.  Credit goes to the individual who introduces a good idea, discovers something new, breaks a record, gets rich, conquers new territory, sings a popular song, and does any of these before anyone else does.

It is often the individuals and not their underlings who receive all the accolades. Paparazzi would chase royalty, musicians, & actors, but would likely not give much attention to their entourages. 

Middle managers, staff, crews, and aides may be seen and even heard but they probably won’t be placed on pedestals.  No one had ever talked much about the men & women who did the stunts for the movie action stars.  No one gives much notice to the programmers & technicians who assembled the technology darling’s new device.  Not much word is given to the bookkeepers who boosted their entrepreneurs’ wealth.

The good news is that the jobs for management, staff, engineering, and administration continue to be available.  The low-key professionals may never become role models or popular figures but at least they’d have their livelihoods, hopefully enough that pays well. 

Everyone, after all, needs to eat; both the famous and not-so-famous.

Find Ellery

Where is the ‘How’ in Fixing Problems?

Opinion-editorial writers fill newspaper columns with what they believe are wrong with the world.  They cite theories and recommend what needs to be done, which may range from legislating news laws, kicking out incompetent people from political office, to reducing red tape.

Absent in many of these op-eds is the how. How would what these op-ed writers are recommending be done?   

It’s one thing to say leaders must enact new laws, hire talented people, and make services simpler.  It’s another to say how that would be achieved. 

Systems & structures underlie the activities of society.  It’s easy to point to problems for leaders to fix but it becomes a challenge to tell them how.   

Find Ellery